Alan Moran
1 August 2022
A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.
| Developments in climate politics and economics\ The European Union voted to include nuclear power and natural gas as investments deemed “sustainable”, though Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz disagrees with including nuclear. Germany’s coalition government is finally reconsidering the decision to close its remaining three nuclear plants, with finance minister Christian Lindner, (from the Free Democrat party) taking the lead. Energy minister Habeck, from the Greens Party, spuriously said fuel rod supplies meant the closures were unstoppable. The real reason is that the plants constrain the grid access of northern wind farms. A review will “recalculate” costs and options. One in six German firms is reportedly reducing production due to energy prices. That finding was prior to Russia announcing that its gas flows will be limited to 20 per cent of capacity, causing a 150 per cent rise in European gas prices. Russian gas accounts for a third of German supplies; Hanover has already turned off heating and hot water in public buildings. |
The Netherlands is the world’s fifth largest food exporter. In pursuit of “Net Zero”, the Dutch Government foreshadowed a closure of a third of its agriculture with high cost increases imposed on the rest. Farmers and other workers have blocked ports and borders – the protests have also involved spraying manure on public service offices and even the seizure of a government jet. German, Italian, Spanish and Polish farmers have also launched protests. The Paris-based International Energy Agencyhas praised the country’s “notable progress on its transition to a carbon-neutral economy”. However, Frans Timmermans, who is in charge of the EU’s green deal and is the Deputy head of the EU, warns that Europe faces massive unrest unless it allows fossil fuel burning to resume.
France is to fully nationalise its 84 per cent owned nuclear business EDF, which is crippled by debts caused by higher regulatory costs coming on top of corrosion causing outages to a third of its plants.
Britain’s electricity prices increased 129 per cent over the past year and will go higher. (EU countries saw slightly smaller increases). Agitprop blames anything but climate regulations.
| Only 4 per cent of Britains place hitting the target of net-zero emissions by 2050 as one of their three priorities. One contender for PM, Rishi Sunak (“I am committed to Net Zero by 2050”), will abandon wind farms on-shore but plans to have more off-shore; he says “the one thing (his daughters) ask me about is what I’m doing on the environment and on climate change.” His opponent Liz Truss plans to deliver net zero “in a more market-friendly way”. Benny Peiser and Andrew Montford note both are following a “dull continuity with Boris Johnson’s green policies” and doubt that the victor will survive the winter. British Trade unions are calling for electricity supply to be nationalised. Green Tories say no leader can ignore the 78 per cent of Conservative voters supporting net zero but previously little known candidate Kemi Badenoch gained great support describing it as “unilateral disarmament”. Firms, including Unilever and Coca-Cola, urged contenders to uphold net zero policies. UK also has a renewed push to allow fracking for gas, including from front-runner for PM, Liz Truss. Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility said taxes must be increased by £180b to meet net zero due to a loss of revenue from motoring taxes. Alternatively, debt will exceed 100pc of GDP by the middle of the century and 267pc in 50 years. Australia’s “energy transition” – a.k.a. the forced replacement of coal by wind/solar – has caused electricity prices to jump from $50 per MWh in 2015, to $85 in 2019 and now to $350 per MWh. Household bills will double this year. Industry competitiveness, and hence income levels, will suffer. |
| Unsurprisingly, renewables subsidy-seekers require additional support beyond the government’s proposed 43 per cent reduction in emissions, saying this “is only the start of what investors need”. Judith Sloan points out that legislating 43 per cent will weaponise green groups by allowing them greater scope to oppose any gas or coal projects, and former PM Tony Abbott says it will bring a “blizzard of litigation” by environmental groups. Westpac Bank will join two other Big Four Australian banks, ANZ and Commonwealth, in policies to achieve net zero emissions. It will slash oil, gas and cement industry lending by 2030 and stop dealing with companies earning more than 5% of their revenue coming directly from thermal coal mining. Francis Menton points out that no demonstration project anywhere has achieved Net Zero in electricity generation. He quotes estimates that 250,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of storage would be required for the US. This is consistent with Paul McArdle’s estimates (~40 minute mark) for Australia of over 9,000 GWh of batteries (which would cost over $6,000 billion) equal to 25 Snowy 2 pumped storage facilities. In the US, Senator Joe Manchin rejected a stripped-down compromise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, saving US consumers $300 billion mainly in subsidies to renewables. However, he agreed to a further compromise that injects an additional $370 billion into “energy security and climate change” measures. Just 1 percent of voters in a recent New York Times poll named climate change as the most important issue facing the country. Even among voters under 30, support was only 3 percent. However, a Morning Consult/Politico survey had 52% of voters supporting a declaration of climate emergency, with strong support from Democrats and heavy opposition from Republicans. The Biden administration proposes to require all states to limit road transportation in a trajectory towards net zero. $27 billion of support is offered. The proposal may be struck down by the US Supreme Court in line with its rejecting EPA’s over-reaching plans to regulate CO2 emissions. Following that decision, some Republicans offered support for a border tax on CO2 import content. Continuing the Environment Social and Governance (ESG) attack on private enterprise, a new US proposal would require firms to provide information on ‘exposures to climate-related risks and opportunities’. It would involve a considerable paperburden exposing businesses to activists’ attacks; a particular target is prevention of fracking for gas and oil. Adoption of ESG policies, especially banning nitrogenous fertilizer has wrecked Sri Lanka’s economy, Sri Lanka has a near perfect ESG rating of 98.1 on a scale of 100. Canada is to implement a variation of Sri Lanka’s killer nitrogenous fertiliser ban. Global coal use for electricity hit a new record in 2021, which will be exceeded this year with China having ordered another 300 million tonnes (about 8 per cent) to be mined. |
Developments in climate science
Tony Heller reports the Great Lakes ice cover was predicted by experts to be at record lows this year. Outcome was dead average!
Also, since 2005, a great many “experts” (including James Hanson, Al Gore, the Sierra Club, the BBC) predicted an ice-free Arctic well before this year. Here is the outcome.
Whimsey
Myron Ebell drew attention to Experts from the Northwest Fisheries Science Center and the California State University saying that “as droughts and floods become more acute with global warming, dam-building beavers are helping stave off the worst impacts by holding back essential water that otherwise would run off or dry up.”
Australia has an Ambassador for Women and Girls, who did not address the debate on women’s sport, but is warning that Climate Change will increase domestic violence.
Brendan O’Neill addressed the UK’s “unhinged eco-dread over the heatwave”, pointing out that climate related deaths are now only 4 per cent of the level a century ago.
| Articles related to climate change – July 2022 Politicians destroy nuclear when the world needs it mostThe Spectator, 25 July 2022 Europeans punished by expensive renewables backed by Russian gas The Spectator, 14 July 2022 The (expensive) brave new world of ‘clean energy’ The Spectator, 9 July 2022 Climate Justice? Victoria’s fresh assault on businesses The Spectator, 1 July 2022 Wrecking a Nation One Electricity Bill at a Time Quadrant Online, 29 July 2022 |