| Alan Moran 1 April 2022 |
| A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments. |
The politics of climate: what a difference a war makes!
President Trump, in July 2018, warned Europe about the dangers of relying on Russian energy. For this he was ridiculed, as illustrated by the supercilious faces of the German delegates.
Global investment markets have noticed that the world has changed.
That might be unwelcome news for Larry Fink of BlackRock who founded the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) system, which is essentially targeting production and use of fossil fuels. 98 percent of US companies are now disclosing ESG scores, with more than 15,000 companies worldwide signing on to the United Nations Global Compact – accepting additional pressures through the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
Rasmussen surveys find that 70% of likely US voters believe the US government should encourage increased oil and gas production to reduce America’s dependence on foreign sources of oil and gas. 18% oppose encouraging US energy independence; 12% are not sure. Another survey has 70 per cent of Americans favouring the re-start of the Keystone pipeline, the termination of which was Biden’s signature policy in repaying wind/solar interests.
Having previously opposed domestic shale oil, President Biden, scrambling to contain oil prices, is seeking help from Venezuela and the Saudis rather than North American shale producers. But while the US ‘consensus’ is to ban Russian oil imports, Nancy Pelosi simultaneously stated her opposition to the development of US oil to replace them.
A letter from the Republicans to the President itemises all the actions that the Administration must now undertake to undo the damage brought about by its actions in impeding or banning oil and gas developments.
War has brought other people to change their minds. The EU’s Green Deal chief, Frans Timmermans, said countries planning to burn coal as an alternative to Russian gas could do so in line with the EU’s climate goals.
Nigel Farage is launching a political movement to campaign for a referendum on Boris Johnson‘s Net Zero by 2050 decarbonisation policy, which experts claim could cost £1.3 trillion. Politico puts the number of Conservative MPs opposing net zero at 58 (compared to only a handful not long ago), though 133 are signed up to the green agenda. Tory pro-renewables MPs are reported to be proposing a tenfold expansion of solar power, a fivefold increase in offshore wind, and a threefold increase in onshore wind, which Net Zero Watch estimates the capital cost alone would run to £305 billion, £11,000 per household.
On the energy revolution, Mark Mills points out, “We’ve been treated to two decades of analogizing “energy tech” with computing and communications tech. (but), if photovoltaic technology could scale like silicon logic, we would soon see a postage-stamp-size solar array powering a skyscraper. If chemistry scaled like computers, we’d see batteries the size of a single book powering jumbo jets.”
Britain’s anti-fracking campaign, based on dangers concocted by BBC climate zealots, is now paused with the destruction of fracking wells suspended though they remain banned. Matt Ridley reports how Putin, Soros and other interests provided support to vilify fracking for oil, even branding drillers as paedophiles, to thwart a competitive source of energy. He points out that Europe has vast reserves of frackable gas and if 10 per cent of one deposit in the UK were permitted it would supply five decades of gas; he also addresses the triviality of the earth tremors that fracking causes.
France had already abandoned its anti-nuclear, pro wind/solar policies before the Ukraine war got hot, with plans announced for 14 new nuclear plants, which Greenpeace called “an egregious miscalculation that will severely inhibit its decarbonization efforts”.
Germany has developed plans for rationing gas. But powerful voices see the crisis as a catalyst for pushing renewables faster. Economy and Climate minister Robert Habeck says expansion of renewables, reduction of consumption in all sectors, diversification (LNG terminals) and the ramp-up of hydrogen will make Germany independent of Russian gas by 2024. Germany’s faith in renewables also involves phasing out sales of combustion engine cars from 2035. Habeck reiterated opposition to extending nuclear plant life beyond 2022 but by the end of March was wobbling. Germany’s energy lobby association BDEW remains focussed on reducing fossil fuel imports and achieving climate targets, by “turbo-charging the expansion of renewables.”
Michael Schellenberger lampoons previous policies saying, “While we banned plastic straws, Russia drilled and doubled nuclear energy production.” European policy changes are summarised by the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s Benny Peiser, who will visit Australia later this month.
Political economy of climate change: business as usual
Wind and solar generated 10.3% of global electricity for the first time in 2021, rising from 9.3% in 2020, and twice the share compared to 2015 when the Paris Climate Agreement was signed. Coal power also rose by 9.0% in 2021 to a new all-time high, 2% above the previous record set in 2018. Most of that increase was in fast-growing Asian countries.
A survey by the Washington Times found that few people are prepared to pay anything like the costs of net zero and found, respondents opposed a carbon tax by a margin of 55 points – up from a margin of 38 points last year. Similarly, an Australian IPA poll found that, surprisingly, 39 per cent of people thought the nation should be more focussed on “net zero” than national defence. But only 8 per cent said they would pay $500 or more annually to achieve net zero. As the subsidy and tax cost of promoting green energy, even now, is some $7 billion a year, the average adult already and unwittingly, is paying that sort of price.
Having missed all previous emission reduction goals, Canada has a roadmap. It includes $7 billion spending, tight emission controls on oil and gas production, mandatory increases in zero emission vehicles and an increase from $C50/tonne in 2022 to $C170/tonne in 2030.
Rejecting any shift towards regulatory rescindments, Australia’s 2022 budget included a further $1.3 billion in new “low emission” subsidies plus a temporary halving of fuel excise.
| Climate Lawfare There is a major increase in global litigation to close down hydrocarbon investment, with 1890 cases are presently underway. In efforts to prevent these and the associated “reputational damage” firms are spending to reduce their emissions. US Securities Commissioner Hester Peirce addressed the proposal to require US firms to provide detailed disclosures on greenhouse and climate risks. She concludes, it lays “the cornerstone of a new disclosure framework that will eventually rival our existing securities disclosure framework in magnitude and cost and probably outpace it in complexity”. In Australia, Victoria’s Supreme Court, while supportive of wind generation, backed claims of residents for compensation for a wind farm’s turbine noise, ordering the project’s operators to switch off parts of the wind farm at night until the noise levels could be reduced to an acceptable level. The operators must also pay aggrieved neighbours more than a quarter of a million dollars in costs and damages. One major company with wind and fossil fuel investments described the judgement as a disaster for wind generators. |
| Developments in climate science. The New South Wales government has set up an inquiry into “the causes of, and factors contributing to, the frequency, intensity, timing and location of floods in NSW in the 2022 catastrophic flood event, including consideration of any role of weather, climate change, and human activity”. Ian Plimer has one answer: Combined with La Niña, the reason for heavy rains in eastern Australia was the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022, the dust from which, created “lightning storms, spectacular sunsets and heavy rain by nucleating droplets”. |
| Once again multiple news outlets including the Washington Post are repeating the lie about the imminent demise of the Great Barrier Reef. This simple graph from Peter Ridd utterly demolishes such agitprop. |
Whimsy
| Environmentalists have a plan to improve on natural biology with a proposal for new breeds of genetically modified photosynthesis-enhanced trees to enhance carbon sequestration. Seemingly oblivious to three decades of climate alarmism, the Sydney Morning Herald declares “We’re on the edge of climate precipice, action is urgent”. |
| In Oxford, activists with no sense of irony are outraged at the defacement of posters, which proclaim ‘code red for humanity’, and ‘our gov’t has failed us’. |
| March articles related to climate change You can’t save the world with Net ZeroThe Spectator, 24 March 2022 Will war end the climate alarmist zeal of the central banks? The Spectator, 21 March 2022 Practicalities in addressing autocrats’ aggression The Spectator, 11 March 2022 Fresh gunpowder in the nostrils of politics The Spectator, 2 March 2022 |