A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments.
by Dr Alan Moran
| Developments – prior to the Ukraine war – in the politics of climate change Introducing the US army’s emission reduction plans, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth got the Ukraine message too late. She said, “For today’s soldiers operating in extreme temperature environments, fighting wildfires, and supporting hurricane recovery, climate change isn’t a distant future” Plans involve: •Investing in an all-electric non-tactical vehicle fleet by 2035. •Significantly reducing operational energy and water use. •Buying electricity from carbon-pollution-free generation sources. Reducing direct greenhouse gas emissions that result from Army training by 2028. Jennifer Morgan, who heads the environmental group Greenpeace International, is to become Germany’s new climate envoy. The United States and Egypt launched preparations for the U.N. climate change summit in Egypt this year, as a US envoy called for a sharp slash in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. |
Developments – post the Ukraine war – in the politics of climate change
Reality bites. Rupert Darwall writes, “Until now, Western leaders have been saying that the biggest threat to the world is climate change. Now comes Putin armed with nuclear weapons, tanks, and troops declaring his intent to overthrow Europe’s post-Cold War order.”
A dangerously militarily resurgent China also looks on as the West deindustrialises by rejecting cheap, reliable energy sources to combat the confected threat of deleterious climate change and to molify subsidy seekers. Darwall writes that although the China threat is now recognised by the Biden Administration, its “anti-fossil-fuel policies will progressively degrade America’s capacity to prevail against its geopolitical adversaries”.
But German Greens Party’s Robert Habeck, the Economy and Climate minister, plans to reduce dependence on Russia by expanding renewables to become more independent of fossil fuel imports! Trump long ago warned Germany of its Russian gas folly. As Matt Canavan tweets, “Germany has the largest renewable energy program in the world, has spent more than $250 billion in green subsidies over the past decade and they have become MORE dependent on Russian gas over this time”. And, facing high and escalating energy costs, 23% of German companies see their existence threatened by higher energy prices, while 65% deemed it a significant challenge.
Europe’s dependence on Russian gas makes sanctions by cutting off its access to the SWIFT banking system costly, since this would also terminate European gas imports.
Benny Peiser argues the Ukraine tragedy requires, “the UK to revitalise North Sea exploration for oil and gas and finally kick-start a shale gas revolution to enhance Britain’s energy supply and national security.” The parlous strategic situation makes it equally vital that Australia ceases its deindustrialisation policies; as I have argued here and earlier these include preventing gas developments, and policies that are destroying coal generators, Australia’s most efficient low cost electricity providers.
France’s President Macron had already reversed his policy against nuclear power prior to the Ukraine war. Pledging to construct 14 new-generation reactors and a fleet of smaller nuclear plants, in a shameless about-face he declared, “The time has come for a nuclear renaissance”. France gets 70 per cent of its electricity from nuclear, which it had planned to replace with wind and solar.
The UK government, having paused its consent for new oil and gas exploration leases in the North Sea, is now going full ahead with approvals. The Sun applauds the government. Fifty Conservative MPs have urged the Government to lift the ban on fracking for gas, a ban that was based on an unfounded environmental activist scare campaign.
In Canada, the Conservatives under new leadership have dropped their support for a carbon tax. Under PM Trudeau the present $50 per tonne carbon tax on fuels is to increase to $170 per tonne by 2030. This compares to Australia’s carbon tax of $24 per tonne that was repealed in 2013 by the Abbott Government.
Bloomberg sadly concludes that in spite of ambitious net zero targets set at the Glasgow climate conference, “2022 already threatens to be the year of global backsliding. From the US to China, in Europe, India and Japan, fossil fuels are staging a comeback, clean energy stocks are taking a hammering, and the prospects for speeding the transition to renewable sources of power are looking grim.” Reciting plans for new renewable energy investments, Bloomberg suggest this is only a temporary blip. The Wall Street Journal differs, noting that, “carbon-based energy is cheap and reliable and zero-carbon alternatives remain elusive”.
| Developments in the economics of climate change. Thunder Said Energy produced this chart of the energy cost of various materials. On average it estimated that a doubling of energy costs increases average material costs by 53 per cent. |
| Subsidy-seeker Nicholas Moore of Macquarie Bank trivialises decarbonisation costs (see from 28 minutes mark). But an analysis by Electric Power Consulting estimates additional costs compared to the present composition of generation as: 1 Replace all coal with nuclear power, $20 per MWh – a 40 per cent increase. 2 The AEMO renewables-oriented plan for 2040, $180 per MWh – a 3.6 fold increase. 3 Replace all coal with gas, $20 per MWh – a 40 per cent increase. 4 100% Renewables plus storage, $340 per MWh – a 6.7 fold increase. |
“Shock and disbelief” by politicians about the announced closure of Origin’s Eraring coal generator, which with the also to be closed Liddell plant provides 40 per cent of electricity in New South Wales. It is a sad reflection on the quality of our politicians that they are surprised their anti-coal policies – which journalist Terry McCrann calls “mindless suicidal insanity” – should force such closures!
As in Australia, Californian regulators are recognising that to replace dense hydrocarbon and nuclear power by wind and solar requires, at the very least, massive spending on transmission. The Californian Independent System Operator released plans that would require over $30 billion in transmission lines to enable renewable supplies to reach the planned 100 per cent renewables by 2045. Australia’s plans, like those of California, are predicated on government renewable energy objectives and political change is required if they were to adopt the end of subsidies inherent in my own recommendations. Other conflicts between green objectives and low cost electricity supply are requiring regulations in the US and Australia that limit rooftop exports to the grid.
Blomberg Green finds spending on the “energy transition” continued to grow last year but that renewable energy spending has changed little over the past 7 years.
nominal dollars
US banks are opposing proposed legislation to protect consumers and small businesses from ESG discrimination (i.e. to discriminate against hydrocarbons) saying this interferes with the free market but, as Betty Grande points out, “The reality is that bankers are already being told how to run their businesses by the federal government, international agencies, and other influencers, whether they admit it or not”.
Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma are among states moving to bar officials from dealing with businesses that are divesting from fossil fuels and otherwise considering climate change in their own investments. Texas requires pension funds and other entities to divest from companies that pull away from the fossil fuel industry and has placed BlackRock on the list.
US gas prices are up 35 per cent since the start of Covid and electricity is up 10 per cent. Further undermining US cheap energy and US energy exports, the Federal Regulatory Energy Commission, which is responsible for approving US energy installations, has a new approval process that creates a climate change threshold capping the emissions that projects may produce.
The UK launched an emissions trading scheme last year; carbon prices have increased from £45 per tonne of emissions to £90 (seven times that of Australia’s 2013 scheme tax). This is crippling the nation’s steel industry
Consumers’ actions speak volumes; only 3 per cent of Ryanair passengers are choosing to pay as little as 78c to offset the climate impact of their flights.
| Developments in climate change science Climate catastrophian, scientist Zeke Hausfather, notes that the world has warmed 1.2C since 1850, which he says is bad and a warming of 2C would be much worse. However, he says this is not going to lead to a crisis “tipping point”, adding that doom forecasting “is an inaccurate framing that is inconsistent with our current scientific understanding”. A new study by Long et al on coral reefs shows, contrary to established fear mongering •Warm periods are conducive to coral growth. •Coral reef growth rates have rapidly accelerated in the last 300 years •Sea levels were respectively 2 meters higher and 1 meter higher than they are today ~4,000 and 1,000 years ago. Lower sea levels produce a “decline in the coral reef development rate”. •The South China Sea surface temperatures were “3 to 6°C higher than today” from about 5,000 to 4,000 years ago; coral reefs developed rapidly in that warmth. That we have to rely on China for honest research on climate reflects the Western world’s corruption of environmental research. Follow this link to register for webinar on the Great Barrier Reef with Peter Ridd, Jo Nova and Walter Starck at 7.30 on 1 March at 19.30 AEST. Marc Moreno reports that five woke foundations (including Rockefeller) have gifted news wholesaler, AP, $8 million to employ environmental activists as reporters. Tony Thomas identifies other media outlets that have taken green gold, including The Australian. |
| Whimsy Ill-gotten gains! The hedge fund that placed greens on the Exxon board in order to transform it from producing hydrocarbons has seen the value of its investment double as a result of the soaring value of Exxon’s hydrocarbon resources! Barrowford Primary School in Lancashire has banned meat from pupil’s lunches. This is to demonstrate ‘how each of us making a small change can have a much wider positive impact’ in preventing climate change. Unsurprisingly the school’s woke headmistress has also banned all punishments for misbehaviour and prevented teachers from raising their voice. |
| Published material in February related to climate change Closing coal? The real victims are Australian energy consumersThe Spectator, 23 February 2022 Let’s remove government regulations that undermine electricity The Spectator, 17 February 2022 Future Policy Directions For Australian Electricity Supply A Submission to the Draft 2022 Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity Market of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)9 February 2022 Can Big Tech remain as the arbiter of politics? The Spectator, 4 February 2022 |