| Alan Moran January 2022 A review and commentary on topical matters concerning the science, economics, and governance associated with climate change developments. Politics, economics and climate change Topping off a year when climate insanity reached new heights, with no indication of human-induced climate danger, we are seeing energy price escalations and western deindustrialisation as a consequence of the assault on hydrocarbons. Though the US infrastructure bill had measures including electric charging stations and tree equity, it also included hard infrastructure but Biden’s “Build Back Better” proposals, now rejected in the Senate, had none of this; its failure prevents the US meeting its Glasgow climate pledges. The US Government has ostensibly reversed course on attacking oil producers. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is urging producers to “hire workers, get your rig count up”, claiming the Biden administration approved drilling permits on federal land at a faster pace than the Trump administration. Others however blame the Administration and financiers like BlackRock for creating energy supply shortfalls and consequent price increases. Fightback? Republican officials overseeing state finances are pushing back against the growing Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) trend in the banking industry to shun funding for the fossil fuel industry. 15 states are considering discriminating against banks that discriminate against fossil fuel developments. The new German coalition government’s Green Vice-Chancellor says meeting the target of an 80 per cent share of renewables in the electricity sector by 2030 will be an “imposition” for many people. He said construction of new installations will need to quadruple and natural gas could drop out of the country’s power mix in the 2030s. In 2021 renewables were 41 per cent of German electricity production, including wind/solar at 29 per cent. |
The German government’s plans to more than double power production from renewable sources by 2030, is a “gigantic task”, said Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but he’s “firmly convinced that we will succeed.” An alternative view is that shutting down baseload-critical nuclear power facilities and replacing them with intermittent renewable energy leaves Germany – and the entire European Union – vulnerable. Compounding this is an attack on natural gas – the remaining option for reliable power, with coal ruled out. The Opposition Christian Democrats have recently elected a new leader with similar views. German electricity prices are illustrated below with similar prices seen throughout the EU.
The EU Commission, however, facing record electricity prices is set to redefine gas and nuclear as “renewable energy”. The Netherlands is set to keep its nuclear plants and build two new ones in contrast to Germany closing two nuclear plants. There is speculation that France may insulate itself from price rises by constraining electricity exports.
UK has seen 26 energy retailers collapse in the pincer of cost increases due to government bans on coal and gas development and fixed prices. More retailer departures are expected and price increasesof 56 per cent (£2,000-a-year) are forecast during 2022. The UK government, bowing to green pressures, is rejecting new North Sea gas and oil production plans. But a recent survey, indicates nearly 60 per cent of people reject a climate change energy levy.
Japan, under new leaders within the ruling party did not re-affirm its climate and energy goals at the Glasgow meeting and now is reportedly abandoning them.
China appears to be turning away from its Glasgow CO2 pollution reduction claims with senior officials quoted as saying they “were complex and long-term tasks that required full consideration of the country’s energy and industrial structure”. Russia is also powering ahead with new coal mines expecting to increase output by at least 10 per cent and perhaps as much as 50 per cent by 2035.
AIA Group Ltd, Asia’s largest insurer and shirt sponsor of Tottenham Hotspur, has sold off almost $10 billion of investments in coal mining and coal-fired power businesses as the firm integrates “environmental, social and governance metrics into its strategy”. Other insurance companies, some under activist pressure, also refuse to cover coal resulting in businesses self-insuring, which the renewables lobby fears will threaten an “orderly coal exit“.
Labor’s Powering Australia climate policy according to “independent” modelling will create 604,000 new jobs by 2030, and reduce emissions by 43 per cent (cf. the government’s 28 per cent target and 35 per cent expectation), the policy would lift the share of renewables to 82% by 2030 (currently the share including hydro is about 28 per cent). It involves:
- Modernising Australia’s ageing electricity grid through a $20 billion Rewiring the Nation plan; said to bring a price fall of $275 per household by 2025.
- $3 billion for renewables and for there use in manufacturing as well as hydrogen electrolysers; presumably this is in addition to the $7 billion a year currently spent;
- 85 solar banks and 400 community batteries across Australia;
- Removing taxes from low priced EVs; taking $12,000 off the cost of a $70,000 Tesla (Meanwhile Elon Musk has called for all subsidies to be terminated);
- 10,000 New Energy Apprentices and a New Energy Skills Program; and
- The Australian Public Service to reach new zero emissions by 2030.
Ben Beattie demonstrates the impossibly high cost and adverse environmental consequences entailed in the latest energy fad – “green” hydrogen derived from water using wind/solar.
Claiming economics/accountancy expertise, Australian government science agency, CSIRO, estimated the following costs ($ per MWH) of different electricity generation technologies:
| CSIRO does not explain why wind/solar still needs subsidies when it is said to be so cheap. The NSW government overturned the (green-run) Planning Court’s decision to close a major coal development in the State’s Central West but ruled out future exploration in the area. As world coal demand surges, the socialistic green International Energy Agency (IEA) regretfully announced, “The pledges to reach net-zero emissions made by many countries, including China and India, should have very strong implications for coal – but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast, reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action.” Australian activist group, Market Forces, uses the IEA reports to attack banks and others not deemed sufficiently in sync with their climate alarmism. |
| Science and climate changeThe BBC speaks warmly about ‘a small but dedicated group of volunteers’ (climate activists) whose mission is ‘to curate and protect’ articles about climate change on Wikipedia. President Biden said there had been an increase in hurricane activity due to global warming. Here is the data on hurricanes, showing the present year is below average. |
| Regarding costs of weather events, Roger Pielke tweets |
An alarmist tells us there is still time to act to prevent an Arctic melt. Ole Humlum, however, shows Arctic ice thickness in 2021 was slightly higher than the recent average but sea ice coverage was about 4 per cent below average.
| Sea ice coverage |
Whimsy
Reprising Ships of Fools in 2014 and 2015, a new bunch of scientists are sailing into Antarctic waters proclaiming the imminent melting of the continent’s ice. The previous intrepid climate apostles had to be rescued from an increasing build up of ice.
In what surely won’t be the last occasion, a Canadian woman with respiratory ailments, has been diagnosed as suffering from climate change.
The demise of polar bears continues to be fictionalised – in this piece warming is somehow said to be resulting in them increasingly attacking humans. Perhaps the bears are reading the IPCC review. Notwithstanding, the ABC’s fact checkers’ stout efforts, they could not refute Gina Rinehart’s contention that polar bear numbers have increased.
Attracted by prospects of winning funds from Elon Musk’s $100 million prize for carbon capture and storage, Australian “scientists” are experimenting with synthetic whale excreta.
| December articles related to climate change Is Frydenberg’s post-Covid economic optimism justified?The Spectator, 21 December 2021 There will be a reckoning for renewablesThe Spectator, 13 December 2021 Is the ALP ‘powering the future’?The Spectator, 7 December 2021 Remembering Adam Smith before it’s too lateThe Spectator, 3 December 2021 |